Friday
Jan012010
Jan 1 Podcast #406: Predictions for 2010
Category: Podcast
Podcast 
Each year we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. The last few years we have been about 30% accurate but that doesn't stop us from trying. With technology moving so fast its difficult to know where its going to end up in just one year but its still fun to try!
Listen to the show
Today's Show:
News:
- A High-Tech Movie Battle: Which 3-D Glasses Are Best?
- DirecTV To Launch A 3D Channel-HD Guru Exclusive
- Amazon sold about 100K Blu-ray players over holiday
- Top 50 Blu-ray Releases of 2009
Other:
- Redbox's most popular 2009 titles
- A 7-hour train ride in HD
- Cablevision's Ultra service in the NY Metro area
Predictions for 2010
Each year we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. The last few years we have been about 30% accurate but that doesn't stop us from trying. With technology moving so fast its difficult to know where its going to end up in just one year but its still fun to try!
Ara's Predictions
Apple will change the TV industry - OK so I'm an Apple fanboy and this isn't much of a stretch. We have recently discovered that Apple owns the name iSlate and that they are trying to work deals with the major networks so that you can purchase an all you can eat iTunes plan. Imagine not having to set your DVR or even making room on the DVR for the next episode. With this plan you can take your content on the road with you on your laptop or the forthcoming Apple Tablet tentatively being called the iSlate. While not for everyone but if you are a light TV watcher this plan is ideal! Goodbye DVR guilt!
3D Will be Forced Upon All of Us - So you just bought your first HDTV in 2009 and your loving it! The manufacturers will have you believing that you are already behind the times. 3D gives manufacturers the opportunity to sell you more equipment at premium prices. To date I have not seen a 3D movie that doesn't give me a headache. While movies like Avatar demonstrate the capabilities of the technology it will be quite some time before there are enough movies around that make an investment in 3D worthwhile. Regardless, look for a full court press pushing this technology.
OLED will break the 11 inch barrier for a commercially available model - Look for LG to introduce a 40 inch model before the year is over. Don't expect that it will be affordable until our 2013 predictions show. At some point OLED will be the technology of choice. It's thin, has vivid colors and sips electricity. While we want this technology to succeed we are not holding our breath. We have been reporting on OLED since we started this show in 2005.
Plasma will hold on to market share if not get a little stronger - People will realize that Plasma technology is still the best way to watch HDTV. Its time to put the Plasma myths to bed. Burn in is no longer an issue, Plasmas do not need to be recharged every couple of years, a properly calibrated Plasma uses only slightly more power than a similarly sized LCD, and new screen coatings have minimized screen glare. Why pay a premium for 240Hz or LED backlighting? These technologies were created just so they can compete with Plasma. A 58 inch plasma goes for $1500 and a 55 inch 240Hz LED lit LCD goes for $3000. Its a no brainer!
3D Will be Forced Upon All of Us - So you just bought your first HDTV in 2009 and your loving it! The manufacturers will have you believing that you are already behind the times. 3D gives manufacturers the opportunity to sell you more equipment at premium prices. To date I have not seen a 3D movie that doesn't give me a headache. While movies like Avatar demonstrate the capabilities of the technology it will be quite some time before there are enough movies around that make an investment in 3D worthwhile. Regardless, look for a full court press pushing this technology.
OLED will break the 11 inch barrier for a commercially available model - Look for LG to introduce a 40 inch model before the year is over. Don't expect that it will be affordable until our 2013 predictions show. At some point OLED will be the technology of choice. It's thin, has vivid colors and sips electricity. While we want this technology to succeed we are not holding our breath. We have been reporting on OLED since we started this show in 2005.
Plasma will hold on to market share if not get a little stronger - People will realize that Plasma technology is still the best way to watch HDTV. Its time to put the Plasma myths to bed. Burn in is no longer an issue, Plasmas do not need to be recharged every couple of years, a properly calibrated Plasma uses only slightly more power than a similarly sized LCD, and new screen coatings have minimized screen glare. Why pay a premium for 240Hz or LED backlighting? These technologies were created just so they can compete with Plasma. A 58 inch plasma goes for $1500 and a 55 inch 240Hz LED lit LCD goes for $3000. Its a no brainer!
Braden's Predictions
Netflix will make some new releases available via streaming - It won't be all new releases, but Netflix will work out an arrangement with at least one studio to make their new release movies available the same time they show up on Amazon, AppleTV and Vudu. This may require a new pricing structure: an added fee on top of your existing monthly cost to get access to the new releases, but they will start to move in that direction.
Blockbuster will make the transition to kiosk - Over the course of the year, Blockbuster will begin to close down the traditional brick and mortar rental stores in favor of more kiosks. They will need to invest in their online business to combat Netflix and their kiosk business to combat Redbox. This will require closing many of the traditional Blockbuster stores. There will still be stores at the end of the year, but significantly less than there are now.
High Definition streaming will become a reality - Someone with a little more market penetration than Vudu, someone like Amazon, Netflix or Apple, will make the same video quality as Vudu HDX available to their customers. This will be the streaming version of HD-DVD: video quality will rival Blu-ray, and some movies will include Dolby Digital+ audio tracks. Who knows, one of the bigger players may even gobble up Vudu to get their hands on the HDX technology.
3D in the home will flop - 3D in the home will go the way of SACD and laser disc. It will work great, and really please a small group of people, but won't make it much further than that. People won't rush out to buy new TVs. Many of the movies that come out on Blu-ray will include a 3D version, but you'll simply get it for free with the regular Blu-ray and most people won't use it.
4K TV will emerge as the "next big thing" - There are already 4K projectors, albeit very expensive ones, available today. A handful of prototype TVs have come and gone. But in 2010, we'll start to see 4K televisions in demo and prototype form all over the place before the end of the year. As they emerge, groups such as the ATSC will begin to work on the next generation of TV broadcast specs to include even more definition than the current HDTV spec.
Blockbuster will make the transition to kiosk - Over the course of the year, Blockbuster will begin to close down the traditional brick and mortar rental stores in favor of more kiosks. They will need to invest in their online business to combat Netflix and their kiosk business to combat Redbox. This will require closing many of the traditional Blockbuster stores. There will still be stores at the end of the year, but significantly less than there are now.
High Definition streaming will become a reality - Someone with a little more market penetration than Vudu, someone like Amazon, Netflix or Apple, will make the same video quality as Vudu HDX available to their customers. This will be the streaming version of HD-DVD: video quality will rival Blu-ray, and some movies will include Dolby Digital+ audio tracks. Who knows, one of the bigger players may even gobble up Vudu to get their hands on the HDX technology.
3D in the home will flop - 3D in the home will go the way of SACD and laser disc. It will work great, and really please a small group of people, but won't make it much further than that. People won't rush out to buy new TVs. Many of the movies that come out on Blu-ray will include a 3D version, but you'll simply get it for free with the regular Blu-ray and most people won't use it.
4K TV will emerge as the "next big thing" - There are already 4K projectors, albeit very expensive ones, available today. A handful of prototype TVs have come and gone. But in 2010, we'll start to see 4K televisions in demo and prototype form all over the place before the end of the year. As they emerge, groups such as the ATSC will begin to work on the next generation of TV broadcast specs to include even more definition than the current HDTV spec.
Reader Comments (17)
From the looks of those predictions my wallet is going to get A LOT lighter next year!!!!!!
Thanks Guys and Happy New Year!
In my opinion Up is *the* must-see of all films released in 2009.
Granted, there's not much of a point to watch this in 3D, but the film itself is the most impressive and touching piece of cinema of all 2009 (and they better nominate it for "Best Picture" at the Oscars).
podcasts are going to grow hot and more hot in 2010 for sure with all the equipments which can synchronize the feed with
Guys, saw Avatar in XD 3D at a specially equipped Cinemark venue. Used the cheapo throw-away polarized glasses. Phenomenal. Cameron used 3D like no one before. Dust motes, haze, smudges on glass gave a subtle but powerful immersive effect. Also, great sound. Don't know if the XD venue made any difference but for once I say, see it in 3D first.
The prediction is being made that 4K TV will take hold in 2010.
For those who don't know, a 4K display comes in at 4096 x 2160 pixels, almost four times the resolution of a 1080p display. Consequently the level of screen detail available will be much improved.
Right now, 4K action is used mostly in high-end digital projectors. It is also displayed in the big 150" plasma TV Panasonic previewed at the January '09 International Consumer Electronics Show. On a screen that size, 1080p resolution would look as grainy as your old standard-definition set.
Will 4K make it to smaller sized plasma sets, like the 58" to 65" plasma tvs? It just may, for the reason that on plasmas and other HDTVs, pixel count is a macho thing - much like horsepower in cars.
So don't be surprised if 4K TVs start quietly creeping onto display floors in 2010. They’ll be expensive, but that picture... ooh la la.
I might be wrong here but I thought DVDs are native 480i SD not 480p ED. Your DVD player or TV up converts the movie to 480p or higher.
Hi Eric,
It all depends. If you are watching on an enhanced definition TV then there is no upconversion. The DVD player just de-interlaces the video. Here you do get enhanced definition out of the player. If you are going to an HDTV then the player or TV must upconvert as well as de-interlace. The results, depending on the player are quite good and you see an improvement over SD.
The point I was trying to make was that what comes out of the DVD player whether upconverted or not is higher quality than what we used to watch over the air or with a VHS player. While not as good as Blu Ray, I prefer the convenience of having all my movies on a centralized server over inserting a disc each time I want to watch a movie.
Thanks for your feedback!
Ara
4K TV is going to go the same way as 3D TV, which is nowhere. Here's why:
- The digital broadcast standard is now finally in place, and who is going to dare to propose changing it again, and make all current HD TVs obsolete?
- The TV industry has just invested a lot in new HD equipment for the current standard
- The movie industry and player manufacturers have had enough trouble selling blu-ray; they don't want a new standard for a long time
- TV manufacturers don't want to have to develop and sell yet another resolution, at best it would be a very small niche market
- The difference in image quality between 1080p and 4K is only visible on a large screen at a close distance. On a 50in screen at 8 feet, only an expert could see any difference.
4K and 3D may become common in the movie theater, which is the only place they make sense. The industry will try to use them to get more viewers off the couch and into the theater. Movies shot at 4K look good on a big theater screen, essentially becoming the digital replacement for true Imax.
4K... EVENTUALLY. I can certainly imagine some high end home theaters in the next several years getting 4k 65" flat panels. There is actually some content if you consider hi-res photos from a digital SLR. A huge 4k display with DLNA capability looking at photos which have that resolution and higher would be AMAZING. And I suppose one day some place similar to Netflix could rent terabyte flash drives with 4k movies on them for some exorbitant fee. In the SD days there were eventually ways to get images with higher res than broadcast. But what year will this come? I'll throw out a date: 2012 for a ridiculously expensive 4k 65" flat panel, 2014 for expensive 4k rentals on terabyte flash drive.
I'm gonna buy 4 so I can have 8k! ;-)
Branden.... one of your predictions has already come true. "High Definition streaming will become a reality". The xbox 360 (I would assume that meets your larger marketshare criteria) now offers 1080p via their smoothstreaming technology which is incredibly impressive.
A lot of people say "technology changes fast" when in reality it never changes as fast a we thing it will. Take Back to the Future. Marty goes ahead thirty years to 2015. Based on that, we should have hover cars in 5 years.
A comment from episode #405 (not sure how far back you guys read comments)
I rented "Up". There was no way to get to the menu. the "Special feature" that was missing was subtitles.
I'm not hard of hearing but like watching movies with subtitles.
This wouldn't be so bad except that there is no indication whatsoever on the box that subtitles are missing (in fact it says that they are included)
If you google "Up DVD subtitles" you will see some discussion on this.
Even though this was a $2 rental I do plan on complaining.
Brian
Saw Avatar 3D at the AMC cineplex in Framingham MA (yay for HPS-4000!). They supplied the throwaway Real 3D glasses.
Hello,
Great show guys, always a pleasure to listen in. Saw Avatar yesterday in 3D. I was supplied Dolby 3D glasses so I assume it was a Dolby 3D set up. Nobody I could find to talk to knew anything about it. A fantastic experience really, there was some really nice cinematic touches. The glasses themselves were not the comfiest of things and I did have to take them off several times just briefly. When they showed the 3D trailers before the movie I dd get a little concerned that I was soon going to have a headache but once the feature started it was fine. I'm down in New Zealand and there are still only a small portion of theatres offering 3D. I'll have to do some research to see what other formats are being used here.
Again, thanks for the show.
Cheers,
Gareth.
We finally broke down and replaced our 9-year-old 65" Sony rear projection with a 65" Panasonic Plasma (through your link :-) We set it up yesterday. Viva la difference! Didn't know what we were missing. Also got a new BluRay player and Harmony remote. Your podcast is quite the enabler.
Question. Our Bose sound system is even older and only has component (red and white) outputs, while the TV only takes some kind of square digital input (optical?). Is there an adapter I can get for this? Has there been enough progress in 10+ years to warrant replacing what was a $1500 sound system back in its day? Our Bose system has 5 speaker pairs and a subwoofer with a CD player but I've long lost the paperwork so I don't know what it's capabilities are.
love the podcast. You guys rock!
Nancy Smith
nancysmithwp@gmail.com
Hi Nancy,
Thanks for your support of our show! It sounds like you are describing an RCA connection for your audio. You can take the analog output from your source (Cable Box or DVD player) and run the audio to your Bose System. But really, this is just two channel surround and with the TV you bought you probably should upgrade your receiver. Either Yamaha or Onkyo make good receivers that handle next generation audio for under $500. I'm pretty sure you can use your Bose speakers but you will most likely need a new subwoofer.
Ara
Thank you Ara. So sweet of you to respond personally. I know how busy you are!
Watched our first Blu-Ray movie last night. Astounding quality.
Found two lost Netflix movies behind our old TV haha. One we hadn't watched yet.. bonus!