“This year’s holiday shopping season results provided some surprises. LCD and PDP TV sets dazzled consumers and the press alike, but smaller display products stole the show. People want to move from fat to flat displays everywhere. Flat panels can deliver breaking news in the palm of your hand almost anytime or show big movies in small spaces almost anywhere. That’s what drives the flat panel industry to increase its display-area output 19% a year,” explained David Barnes, VP of Strategic Analysis for DisplaySearch.

Display area indicates the amount of information-value delivered by each technology. Looking back at 2005, the report shows that CRT and FPD each provided about 50% of the display area. By 2007, flat-panel technologies had delivered almost 79% of the information display area. Looking forward to 2015, the report forecasts FPD will provide 98% of the information display area. As shown in Figure 1, LCD technologies will provide 88% of the display area by 2015 and PDP technology will provide another 8%. The forecast calls for total display area to increase 12% a year from 58 million m² in 2005 to 176 million in 2015.

Figure 1: Total Display Area Share by Flat Panel Technology

On a unit shipment basis, most displays have used flat panel technologies for many years because demand for handheld and portable products is huge. Most flat panels used LCD technology in 2005 and that portion increased in 2007 when 70% of all flat panels were LCD types. Looking at the whole range of flat panels from 1” to 100”, the share of LCD keeps rising. Note that the unit share of OLED may rise to 8% by 2015, however. Figure 2 shows the shipment share by technology. The portion of CRT units will fall below 1% early next decade. Total display shipments will rise 5% a year from 3,376 million units in 2005 to 5,465 million in 2015.

Figure 2: Total Display Unit Share by Flat Panel Technology

Consequently, the sale share of CRT will also fall below 1%. As shown in Figure 2, the shipment share of microdisplays used in projectors or rear-projection TV sets is diminishing over time as direct-view displays become more cost effective. This leaves most of the dollar value to LCD and PDP technologies, which supply the expanding market for flat-panel TV sets. The report also shows OLED developing into an important product category. Sales of electronic displays will rise 5% a year from $86 billion in 2005 to $141 billion in 2015.

Figure 3: Total Display Sales Share by Flat Panel Technology

Emerging FPD Applications—Small/Medium Displays Skyrocketed
On an application basis, the five display applications that grew the most Y/Y in Q3’07 were digital picture frames at a whopping 2,706%, industrial displays at 119%, home appliances at 112%, head-up displays (displays found in cars or airplanes that are viewable by drivers and pilots without taking their eyes off the road or target) at 98%, and office products at 62%.

DisplaySearch forecasts shipments of displays into these five applications will grow 9% each year from 182.0 million in 2007 to 275.6 million in 2012. Overall, shipments of flat panels under 10” will exceed 4 billion units in 2012. Most of these units, about 3 billion, will be direct-view LCD (pixel-based, not segmented) panels. Shipments of large LCDs will reach 705 million in 2012 on the strength of demand for LCD TV sets, but smaller LCDs will drive shipment growth.

“Mundane consumer electronics products are getting a facelift, including applications that provided graphics information, such as multi-function printers, and head-up displays are also becoming more prevalent,” Barnes added.

Implications for the LCD Industry
LCD producers have been increasing the average number of panels they fabricate on glass substrates due to the increased demand for LCDs for these emerging applications. The average size of glass substrates used for all LCDs increased 98% from 2002 to 2007, and the average number of all panels fabricated per substrate increased 226% from 13 to 42. The blue line in Figure 4 shows how this increase in shipments has been achieved.

Figure 4: Average TFT LCD per Glass Substrate

New TFT-LCD Manufacturing Facilities Will be Needed
In contrast, the average number of large TFT LCDs fabricated in
Gen 4 (730 × 920 mm glass) or new plants has remained about 14. The green line in Figure 4 plots this development from 2006 when older generation fabs were mostly rededicated to make smaller TFT LCDs. All of the new plant investments made since 2006 and planned through 2009 are represented on this green line.

“Panel makers may need new factories to handle all of the small/medium display demand in coming years, especially if they plan to increase production of emerging technology products like OLEDs. TFT LCD plants under construction are planned for TV panels and will not serve markets for portable products. Combined, the demand for large and small panels looks very bright indeed,” Barnes concluded.

DisplaySearch’s Quarterly Worldwide Flat Panel Forecast Report now forecasts sales, shipments and prices for electronic displays through 2015. For more information on the Quarterly Large-Area TFT LCD Shipment Report, please contact Arie Braun at 1.512.687.1505 or arie@displaysearch.com.

About DisplaySearch
DisplaySearch, an NPD Group company, has a core team of 59 employees located in Europe, North America and Asia who produce a valued suite of FPD-related market forecasts, technology assessments, surveys, studies and analyses. The company also organizes influential events worldwide. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, DisplaySearch has regional operations in Chicago, Houston, Kyoto, London, San Diego, San Jose, Seoul, Shenzhen, Taipei and Tokyo, and the company is on the web at http://www.displaysearch.com/.

About The NPD Group Inc.
The NPD Group is the leading provider of reliable and comprehensive consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Today, more than 1,600 manufacturers, retailers and service companies rely on NPD to help them drive critical business decisions at the global, national and local market levels. NPD helps our clients to identify new business opportunities and guide product development, marketing, sales, merchandising and other functions. Information is available for the following industry sectors: automotive, beauty, commercial technology, consumer technology, entertainment, fashion, food and beverage, foodservice, home, office supplies, software, sports, toys and wireless. For more information, visit http://www.npd.com/.

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